The Housing Market

It’s Not All About The Numbers, You Know…

As a mortgage and protection adviser, with over 40 years’ experience in the industry, I’d be the first to admit that it’s easy to get caught up in the numbers and figures side of things, when looking at movement within the housing market.

Why? 

Well, because numbers are tangible, they’re black and white, and regardless of whether they make for good reading or disappointing reading, they’re usually pretty easy to read.

1.7 % one way, 1.7 % the other way…

It all adds up to making a lot of sense, because we can put numbers on charts and make predictions on graphs. 

Most people, therefore, when it comes to entering the housing market in whatever role they plan to take, like the idea working with numbers. They understand them.

But…

…numbers only tell you half of the story, and in order to fully understand the housing market, as well as where it’s come from and where it looks likely to go, you need to pay attention to what is driving those numbers.

Unemployment, a recession, the small matter of a global pandemic…

…all of these factors, whether you look at them as symptoms or causes, play a part in determining where the numbers will go next, as they directly influence how much money people will have, and how much money people will be willing (or able) to part with in future.

And appearances can be deceiving as well, meaning you have to learn to read between the lines, something that my forty plus years of experience is pretty useful for!

For instance, coming off the back of a lockdown that lasted the best part of six months, staring down the barrel of the worst recession in history, who would’ve predicted that the average house price in the UK would’ve risen at the end of October?

Well, any mortgage adviser worth their salt would have! 

And not because of any number or figure either!

With buy to let landlords becoming disillusioned with the state of the industry, and the fact that they’ve been unable to pursue arrears or evict ‘bad’ tenants for months, the property market has been flooded with new houses for sale.

That’s one part of a bigger picture, with other things like the suspension of stamp duty, optimism about a vaccine, and everything that is still rumbling on with Brexit all having their own part to play as well.

See, it isn’t all about the numbers and figures after all.

To be a good mortgage adviser, you need to know your numbers. 

To be a great mortgage adviser, you need to forget the numbers every now and then, and look to society, culture and politics to see exactly what is driving those numbers to act in the way they do.

About that house price rise at the end of October…

…where do you think it’s likely to go next? 

When furlough ends in March… 

When the stamp duty suspension ends in March…

Answers on a postcard, please.

No numbers allowed.

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